![]() ![]() Overall, the signal to oil markets was clear: the risk of handling Iranian oil had declined. The policy of limited enforcement may also have reduced Tehran’s urgency to revive the nuclear deal by giving it valuable economic support and eroding the potential benefits of formalized sanctions relief. Yet these efforts have been intermittent rather than part of a wider campaign, and they have not had a noticeable impact on Iranian export numbers or the regime’s decisionmaking. Although officials reportedly prioritized private diplomatic efforts to encourage China to curtail its purchases, the United States did not issue any energy-related sanctions on Iran until June 2021 and imposed only two other batches the rest of the year ( in August and September ).Įnforcement measures picked up in 2022-in all, Biden’s Treasury Department has issued ten rounds of sanctions tied to Iranian energy sales. But they are much higher than at the peak of Trump’s maximum pressure campaign, when oil import waivers expired in May 2019 and Iranian exports fell to 500,000 bpd or less.Īs negotiations to revive the JCPOA began last year, the Biden administration decided not to aggressively enforce maximal sanctions in word or deed, seemingly concluding that this would dampen diplomatic prospects and was ultimately unnecessary because the nuclear deal would be revived quickly. These numbers are far below the roughly 2.7 million bpd Iran was exporting in early 2018, before the Trump administration withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and reimposed secondary sanctions. Most of this flow went to companies in China, with entities in Syria, the United Arab Emirates, and Venezuela receiving some as well (the oil sent to the UAE is likely reexported to Asia). Over the past three months, Iran’s oil exports averaged between 810,000 and 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude and condensate (a light liquid hydrocarbon), according to estimates from TankerTrackers, Vortexa, Kpler, and United Against Nuclear Iran. Taking a stronger approach could impose greater costs on Tehran for its nuclear, regional, and domestic policies. While the Treasury Department sanctions issued on November 3 are a step in the right direction, they fall short of a systematic campaign. The Biden administration has kept its predecessor’s “maximum pressure” sanctions in place but has not rigorously enforced them, allowing Iran to increase its energy exports over the past two years. One potential area in which to do so is the energy sector, where concerted pressure could cut into a key source of government income. ![]() Although Western governments have responded to these actions by imposing limited new sanctions and attempting to isolate Tehran diplomatically, they have not significantly upped the pressure so far. In recent months, Iran has increasingly engaged in violations of UN resolutions and international norms, from sending weapons to Russia for use against Ukraine, to brutally suppressing mass protests at home, to advancing its nuclear program in irreversible ways. 25-40.Iran continues to export significant volumes of oil, providing a key source of revenue for the regime-and a potential target for increased economic pressure. " Critical Review of Polymer Flooding in Daqing Field and Pelican Field: Case Studies of the World's Largest Polymer Flooding in Light and Heavy Oil Reservoirs, Respectively." Journal of Engineering Research and Reports, vol. “ Evolution of Canada’s Oil and Gas Industry,” Pages 5–7.Įzeh, Okechukwu, et al. " International Energy Outlook 2021, Table G2: World Crude Oil Production by Region and Country, Reference Case."Ĭanadian Centre for Energy Information. " Why chaos in Russia could spell trouble for the global economy." “ International Energy Outlook 2021, Table G1: World Petroleum and Other Liquids Production, Reference Case.” ![]() " Country Analysis Brief: Saudi Arabia,". “ Member Countries.”Ĭentral Intelligence Agency: The World Factbook. Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. Petroleum Trade to Shift Toward Net Imports During 2022." " Pennsylvania Natural Gas Plant Liquids Production." " International Data: Petroleum and Other Liquids." " Frequently Asked Questions: What Countries Are the Top Producers and Consumers of Oil?" " OPEC+ announces surprise oil output cuts." " The Five Biggest Oil Producers – Updated 2022." "Oil Market Report - September 2022."ĭW Energy Group. ![]()
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